Financials:
Bonds are currently 5.5 lower at 113’31.5 and the 10 Yr. Notes 7.5 lower at 113’07.5. Near term support remains at 113’26.0 and resistance at 115’08.0. I continue to prefer the short side of the market on rallies.
Grains:
Yesterday Beans were 6 higher, Corn 16 lower and Wheat 5 higher. Over night Beans were 36 cents lower, Corn 21 lower and Wheat 12 lower. Yesterday I was stopped out of my long Dec. Corn position at the 593’0 level (15 cents lower for the day). I could site a myriad of reasons for what went wrong with this position, but the bottom line is I was wrong the market and got stubborn not believing I could be wrong to this degree. Foolishly I remain spread long Dec.08/ short Dec.09 and as mentioned yesterday I was willing to risk another 15 cents on this position. As for the combination of Dec. Corn puts and calls we have taken profits on the 660-680 put spread above 14’4 cents. By the way, I will not be insulted if I hear from you and find out that you now feel it is safe to be long now that Marc is out of the market.
Cattle:
Yesterday Live Cattle were 110-165 lower and Feeder Cattle 80-125 lower. Oct. Cattle have fallen into my recommended buy area and I am willing to try the long side of the market with a 200 point risk.
Silver:
Silver is currently 15 cents lower at 17.85. We remain long for the moment and will use a protective sell stop at the 17.25 level. Yesterday the market did not reach the 18.85 level for the Sept. contract which would have given me encouragement to add to current long positions. I am now only cautiously bullish.
S&P's:
S&P’s are currently 4.00 higher at 1278.50. Yesterday’s resistance of 1271 has been penetrated as the market traded as high as 1284.50 over night. Support is now 1263 and resistance 1293. I will be a seller on a rally to resistance.
Currencies:
As of this writing the Euro is 46 lower, the Swiss 34 lower, the Yen 32 lower and the Pound 88 higher. The Sept. Dollar index is 14 higher at 72.185. We remain long the dollar index. The Euro has now penetrated the 1.5700 level (currently 1.5696) giving me a sell signal. I am recommending the short side of the market on rallies and using a protective buy stop above the contract high of 1.5988 which would put the initial risk at about $3000. If the market trades below 1.5600 I will lower my stop significantly to the 1.5810 level.
Marc Nemenoff
Alaron Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@alaron.com
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